By Phoebe Eden-Mann, National Policy Analyst
Published 10 November 2026
Now that election night has been, disabled people and families, like most Kiwis, might be feeling confused about what the results mean. Understandably, because this election was quite frankly the weirdest election in recent memory.
So, who’s won then?
Short answer is, we don’t know yet. There’s a genuine path to government for both the right bloc (National, Act, New Zealand First) – who currently have a slight lead – and the left bloc (Labour, Greens, Te Pāti Māori). A big question mark is who Opportunity will side with, as the party hasn’t yet made a clear decision.
All about the Special Votes
We don’t have an actual answer as to who is running the country next term, and we won’t have an answer for at least a few weeks yet. That’s because we’re waiting for the Special Votes to be counted. Many disabled people will have made a Special Vote by services like telephone dictation. Special Votes also include people overseas, who voted outside their electorate, or were on the unpublished roll. There’s about 400,000 to come in, which is a fairly significant number and in an election this tight, could very well make a big difference.
In past elections, Special Votes have favoured the left bloc parties (this will be important to keep in mind). So I’d expect to see list seats come from ACT and New Zealand First, and go to the Greens (and maybe Labour and Opportunity).
There’s a few key electorates to keep an eye on that are extremely close and could flip to the left once the Special Votes are in: Wairarapa and Hamilton East. The left bloc would need at least one of those to flip, and some more list seats in order to form a coalition. On the other hand, National could flip Mount Roskill if they overtake Labour’s narrow 262-vote lead.
Opportunity: the Kingmaker
As it stands currently, the right bloc have a single seat majority, achieved mainly through electorate votes. This means they can govern without Opportunity.
However, it’s very possible they will lose that single seat majority, given how close some of the key electorates are. In that case, the right bloc will need Opportunity to form a coalition. And if they lose more than one seat, the left bloc could take majority by forming a coalition with Opportunity, which they’ve previously said they would do – a more difficult path, but not impossible.
What we know for sure
Because they received only 29.21% of the party votes (neck and neck with Labour at 29.36%), National has zero list seats and has lost most of their front bench of senior MPs. Willis, Bishop, Brownlee, and Goldsmith are all out and there’s not a realistic scenario where any of them make it back in, especially once the special votes come in and National lose even more party votes. So even if they stay in Government, the people in ministerial positions are likely to change. We will be working on Ministerial briefings to support whoever is in power to understand what’s important to disabled people and whānau.
What now?
The main takeaway here is that we don’t know what we’re looking at until the Special Votes come in and the final vote count is confirmed on the 27 November. Once we have those numbers, the parties will start formal coalition negotiations and we will hopefully (emphasis on hopefully) have a government by Christmas.
Again, this has been the weirdest election in history, and at this point, I think we all deserve a cup of tea and a lie down because what a wild ride the last six weeks have been!
In the meantime, stay tuned for the Special Votes to come in on the 27th when we will update you with the full picture.